John Eichberger |
February 2024
I heard a guy present once and he led with, “In God we trust, all others bring data.” That statement resonated with me. Not only did it remind me that we (the Transportation Energy Institute, in particular) have an obligation to rely on reputable data, it also reminds me how disconnected some advocates are from this philosophy. For years, I have heard Washington, DC political professionals tell me “Don’t let the facts detract from a good story.” Some will steadfastly push their objective and, despite all evidence to the contrary, never accept that they may not be right. It is always good practice to look at the data – the evidence – before reaching a conclusion or developing a strategy.
Whenever I sit down to write this column, I try to find new data to leverage. Often it is just updates on data I rely upon regularly to inform myself about the condition of the transportation market. But this month, as we plan the content for TEI’24, I wanted to look at some fresh data relative to consumers – specifically, who and where they are. Because at the end of the day, as even the most ardent advocates must eventually accept, the consumer will decide how the market evolves. So I turned to recently released data from the Federal Highway Administration’s Office of Highway Policy Information and their Highway Statistics 2022, released October 5, 2023. There is a ton of interesting data here, but let me share with you some of the information I found interesting as it relates to consumers and, more specifically, drivers. Some of this is just interesting, some raises additional questions we might want to consider.
Vehicle Miles Traveled
To understand the consumer/driver, it helps to first have a baseline for overall driving behavior. With notable exceptions during the Great Recession and COVID-19, total vehicles miles traveled has increased steadily for the past 100 years. Meanwhile, the driving population continues to expand, eclipsing 235 million drivers in 2022. When we compare these data points, however, we notice that per capita miles traveled dipped during the Recession and has not really recovered since. So, while the country continues to expand its driving population, individuals on average are not increasing the miles they drive. In the 10 years leading up to the pandemic, the average American drove an average 14,153 miles each year with little variation. In the two years following the pandemic, the average dropped slightly to 13,526, but this is still pretty consistent with the prior 10 years. Have we reached a saturation point in individual miles traveled and, if so, what does that mean for the market?
Where are the drivers?
The United States occupies a very large territory and the population is not equally distributed. Likewise, the vehicle population is not equally distributed. In 2022, California dominated the country in terms of registered vehicles with more than 31 million units, followed distantly by Texas with approximately 23 million. The country as a whole operated more than 283 million vehicles but distribution of those vehicles was heavily concentrated among a few states. California again leads the charge with 11% of all registered vehicles, meanwhile 33 states have less than 2% each of the entire vehicle population of the United States. California, Texas and Florida represent 26% of the nation’s vehicle population. This concentration of vehicles should help inform policies and go-to-market strategies, which should be tailored to serve the customers where they are.
Who are the drivers?
Several years ago, one of the popular refrains among industry pundits was that young people don’t want to drive. TEI published a paper in 2014 called “Driver Demographics” in which we dissected decades of data about drivers, including the propensity of different ages to have their driver’s license. In that report, we published a chart which supported the refrain – teenagers indeed were not driving as much as earlier generations. According to that data, in 1982 67% of teens were driving whereas by 2012 that number had dropped to 51%. Has this trend continued over the past 10 years?
According to FHWA, it has. There was a significant drop in teen licensing in 2020, but even excluding that year the percent of teens driving over the past two decades is less than 50% of the teen population. Moreover, it seems that each age group under 25 has at least slightly reduced the percent of population behind the wheel over the past 20 years. What does this mean for energy and vehicle demand? The 2014 study demonstrated that teens that forego their license eventually do enter the driving population, just at a later date than their predecessors. Should we expect to continue to see the delay in driving maturity over time?
Another way to think about the age of the driving public is to compare the data with the general population. The chart below shows the percent of drivers represented by each age group next to the percent of the population represented by each age group. I am not sure what this comparison tells us, other than those 25 – 60 years old represent a larger share of drivers than their share of the population. Again, not really sure what this means but it could be the basis for a discussion.
Where are the drivers?
Every state has different transportation needs and options. For example, cities like Washington, DC, New York and Chicago have highly utilized subway systems where rural states like Montana and Wyoming have minimal alternatives to driving and extended distances between population centers. A metric that is interesting is the percent of driving age population in each state with a driver’s license. The state with the lowest percentage of drivers is New York with just 75% of eligible drivers actually driving. California, despite having the largest population and greatest number of vehicles, comes in at only 88% of eligible drivers. The degree to which individuals rely on their personal vehicles is an important factor in understanding the future of the transportation sector and developing solutions that satisfy consumer needs.
Where is the energy consumed?
The geographic distribution of vehicles and drivers should have a correlation to the amount of transportation energy consumed, and it does. But the miles traveled in a state is just as important to the energy demand. Here again, there is a logical correlation – California, Texas and Florida lead in vehicles, drivers and miles traveled. But there is a slight disconnect when we look at gallons of fuel consumed. Texas takes over a leadership position, reporting nearly 21 billion gallons consumed in 2022 compared with California’s 17 billion. Although California leads in miles traveled, vehicles and drivers, it consumed less fuel. Is this due to policies enacted in that state that affect efficiency and fuel consumption, or are there other key factors affecting this metric?
But sometimes, looking at a single year of data can miss the story. The following maps show the gallons consumed from 2012-2022 and the change in consumption over that time. These show that Texas still consumed the most gallons over the time frame and actually increased its consumption by 23.2%. This increase in consumption was only bested by Idaho, Alabama and Colorado.
Final Thoughts
There is a ton of data left to unpack about consumer behavior, preferences and needs, and we will be collecting data directly from consumers in order to share those insights at TEI’24. Meanwhile, the above selections give a quick snapshot of some important metrics. As we dive deeper into the options available to deliver lower emissions transportation in a reliable and affordable way, we have to keep the consumer top of mind. Only by satisfying their needs can a strategy be successful. As the data presented here demonstrates, the United States is not just one market and it needs multiple solutions to satisfy the needs of consumers throughout the nation.
