Canadian Transportation Council |  Medium-Heavy Duty Vehicle Committee | Electric Vehicle Council

How Predicting Hurricanes Helps Keep Fuel Supply Running

Recently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its hurricane forecast for 2025, predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. This is significant for the transportation and energy sector, as the primary production area for petroleum products is located in the Gulf Coast, specifically from Texas through Louisiana.

At TEI, we aim to help people understand how the liquid fuel system operates and why it may be vulnerable to hurricane activity. Approximately 60% of U.S. oil production and 45% of U.S. refining capacity is concentrated in this area. When a hurricane hits, it can disrupt production, distribution, and supply chains as far away as Washington State and New England, affecting many who may not understand why.

In 2016, we published a paper titled The U.S. Fuel Distribution Network to explain where liquid fuels are produced and how they are distributed throughout the country. The report demonstrates the incredible achievement of a system that consistently delivers gasoline at an average price of $3 nationwide with very few disruptions throughout the year and explains why a disruption can affect markets far and wide.

Consumers are quite sensitive to retail price volatility. Much of this can be attributed to the behavior of traders responding to real and potential market dynamics and activities, but for the most part significant supply disruptions and resulting price reactions occur rarely.  Despite the potential impact of predicted hurricanes, the system remains largely resilient against such disruptions, which is truly remarkable. The paper we published served as an introduction to how fuel moves from point A to point B.

For context, we process more than 18 million barrels of oil each day, breaking it down to produce nearly 20 different products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. After refining, the fuel is stored at the refinery, loaded into pipelines, and transported to storage terminals. There, it is mixed with products from other refineries before being sent through more pipelines to additional terminals. Finally, it is often blended with biofuels and delivered by tanker trucks, to retail stations, where it ends up in underground storage tanks for consumers to purchase.

Consumers most often are not aware of the extensive processes involved in getting fuel to them at a relatively low cost.  For example, years ago when I was working for Congress, a constituent said how impressed he was that gas station operators were able to build their stores right where gasoline was located. Despite his lack of familiarity with the process, every day this system ensures he is able to purchase fuel when and where he needs it.

Events like hurricanes, Superstorm Sandy, 9/11, and pipeline breaks have all posed challenges. Yet, in the face of these challenges, the system recovered quickly and resumed its delivery of essential energy products to consumers. And day in and day out, this system efficiently transports hundreds of billions of gallons of fuel across the country, often without public awareness of how it operates and without compromising the quality of the fuel reaching its final destination.

When you consider that all these liquid fuels flow through the same pipelines, with careful sequencing and separation, and are separated at terminals for delivery to gas stations, airports, etc., the consistent successful delivery of quality products is truly inspiring.

As we enter the 2025 hurricane season, it is worth recognizing the systems that are in place to help respond quickly to any potential disruption.  Every state has its emergency response center, where experts are monitoring the hurricane closely and working with industry to help deliver fuels for emergency responders to keep hospital generators and other critical infrastructure going.  In the event energy infrastructure is impacted by the storm, industry and government officials work together to restore operations to get the system back online and to minimize disruption to consumers throughout the country.

Our 2016 report explains how this system works and how all parts of the country are interconnected – it is a great resource for those curious about what might happen should NOAA’s predictions come to pass. All TEI reports are offered to the public free of charge, so for anyone interested in how the market works and what may happen in the event of a disruption, check it out.

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